Box Office Predictions

UPDATE: The unforseeable bombing of both Bandslam and The Goods has rattled even this prognosticator ot prognosticators. I ranked 293/503, with 73.25% accuracy. Actuals put District 9 at $37.4 (way more than I thought - I'll review by Saturday), followed by G.I. Joe at $22.3 and The Time Traveler's Wife in third with $18.6. Bandslam opened up to a dismal 25% of expectations, while The Goods barely managed half of its expected ticket sales.

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My predictions for Friday, August 14th - Sunday, August 16th

$27.9 --- District 9

$21.2 --- G.I. Joe

$18.9 --- The Time Traveler's Wife

$11.0 --- Julie & Julia

$9.1 --- The Goods: Live Hard, Sell Hard

$8.2 --- Bandslam

$5.4 --- G-Force

$5.1 --- Harry Potter

$3.6 --- Funny People

$2.8 --- Ponyo

(Derby)

Consistant with the two (2!) people who voted in this week's poll...

Box Office Predictions

UPDATE: The inaugural predictions were terrible. I ranked 256/562, with 77.6% accuracy. Actuals put G.I. Joe at $54.7, followed by Julie & Julia at $20.0 and Harry Potter in third with $8.9. Better luck next time.

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My predictions for Friday, August 7th - Sunday, August 9th

$39.5 --- G.I. Joe

$25.0 --- Julie & Julia

$11.2 --- Harry Potter

$11.0 --- G-Force

$7.4 --- Funny People

$6.9 --- A Perfect Getaway

$4.9 --- The Ugly Truth

$3.9 --- Aliens in the Attic

$3.9 --- Orphan

$3.8 --- Ice Age

Let me know what you think... comment!

(Derby)

Funny People

Jul 2009, Judd Apatow, 146 mins

Adam Sandler has long been rumored to have the chops to carry a dramatic picture; and over the past 5 years Judd Apatow has solidified his reputation as a mastermind of comedy. On paper, having these two work together in Apatow’s first attempt at a dramedy seems like a match made in bromance heaven. This being said, the final product felt empty of a true connection between the characters and the moody melodrama that filled most of the 140 plus running time. Call me a cynic but I probably had too high of hopes for Funny People. Judd Apatow can’t make a classic every time around. Though enjoyable for the most part, I’m not sure the genre that Apatow created needs to be complicated with such emotional deepness.

Comic writers often find it hard to relate stand up acts to the big screen – much of the reason that Carrot Top will always be the punch line of jokes and never the star of a budgeted movie. There are plenty of laughs in Funny People but the best jokes are told on stage, much the way a comedians “concert” film would be shot.

Seth Rogen’s character Ira, gets the job opportunity of a lifetime by getting to write jokes for Sandler’s semi-autobiographical character, George Simmons. George, an aging super comedian who has been a marquee name in comedy for years, find out he has a serious blood disease that will most likely be his final act. George returns to his roots of stand-up in hopes to have a few good laughs before he goes. Ira tries to be the friend of the dying “sad clown” but ends up writing himself into the story which is George’s life. He goes beyond his hired reach and tries to help George deal with his missteps before life’s regrets become irreconcilable.

That’s the gist of the first half of the movie. Mix in a little bit of Jonah Hill dropping some relevantly humorous pop culture references and you have a sustainable first act.

The second half of the movie plays as if the Lifetime Channel attempted to do a romantic comedy. They are forced to address the serious content on which this movie was based. This (sad to say) is wasted time in an Apatow flick. Jonathan Demme, maybe. Steven Spielberg, sure. But Apatow? I’m going to say no. The set ups are bad, the jokes are absent, and if not for Eric Bana’s hilarious performance as George’s nemesis, it would have been totally forgettable.

Funny People is a far cry from the good natured witty humor of The 40 Year Old Virgin and Knocked Up. The belly laughs are missing, the quotable jokes are missing, and the happy spirit is gone. By the time the final laugh and fade away occurred, I was ready to stretch my legs and leave. Regardless, I believe the rumor will continue that Adam Sander has the chops to carry a drama – this film will not silence the critics, nor the worshipers.

The Hurt Locker

Jun 2009, Kathryn Bigelow, 131 mins

As with many solid war pictures, the acting and the directing must be near perfect. Storytellers and cinematographers need to know what feeling and persona they are trying to show the audience. There are two types of war movies, ones that work and ones that don’t. The Hurt Locker works. It works, not because it is a large, sprawling epic like Doctor Zhivago or Schindler’s List. It works because it has a certain profoundness without being pretentious. The movie allows its small arc to be large enough for support. The Hurt Locker is the story of three men, from different backgrounds and different inner personalities dealing with war. Many of the moments are so tense your fingernails will grow shorter by the minute.

Jeremy Renner leads the superb cast in Kathryn Bigelow’s shockingly surprising action movie. Renner is one of those actors who sneaks up on you. His next-door charm hides a dark strength not seen in a war film of this generation. He’s gone a long way from picking his nose in National Lampoon’s Senior Trip. As the bomb squad’s Staff Sergeant, Renner is a menace. A man who will, without a care in the world, attempt to defuse road side bombs strong enough to destroy a city block. Anthony Mackie gives a solid, if somewhat uneven performance in a supporting role.

There is something relaxing about walking into a universally well reviewed movie like The Hurt Locker, there is the feel that your ten bucks will not be wasted, that the final act will be as good as the first two, and the confidence that any twist will not involve a hidden personality in our lead. The Hurt Locker stayed solid throughout, though not a classic by any means, a good movie about war that does not leave you exhausted or sad. It leaves you feeling just the way you wanted it to, entertained.

Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

Jun 2009, Michael Bay, 150 mins

Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen is a big, pretty, metallic, 150 minute long piece of crap. That’s it, that’s the whole review.

I should stop there, but that wouldn’t be fitting for a film that itself was about double the length it should have been. Once you get past the first hour or so, the robotic action runs its course. Not to mention the million new robots that enter the fray this go around. I’m sorry, but I was exhausted just trying to follow the paper thin romance of Megan Fox and Shia LeBouf… by the way, come on... come on! Who is the casting director?

Let me take a step back; I liked the first movie and I liked some of the action in the second. It was entertaining but the story was absolute junk. And I know, I should have “checked my brain at the door” – and I did that, I swear I did that. I just don’t like the idea that a movie with such a huge budget and marketing campaign couldn’t have come up with anything better than what stuck when it was thrown at the screen.

There were so many lame jokes and unfunny characters that the second half of the film really became an endurance test. What was fun became old and boring. By the time the final showdown occurred, there were so many robots trying to run through the hole-ridden plot that I can’t even remember who won. I think Megatron and Optimus Prime were there but I’m not sure.

With all this said, Transformers Revenge is a big summer movie with a lot of effects. There will be another one I’m sure. Hopefully the writers can take enough of a break to write a draft or two and get it right next time. It feels to me that this script was rushed into production shortly before the writers’ strike of last year. When a studio cuts corners like that, you get movies like Transformers Revenge, Spiderman 3, and anything staring Miley Cyrus.

Brüno

Jul 2009, Larry Charles, 81 mins

Sacha Baron Cohen loves his dick. A dick that he believes must be shown to every aching eye, brown or otherwise. In Brüno, there is a lot of dick – and barely any social commentary about the acceptance of homosexuality. How many movies can you say those last two lines about?

The lack of commentary is fine; I don’t really think people started caring more about the people of Kazakhstan after seeing Borat. Cohen wants to amuse but also disguise his humor, even if very slightly, with a word of hope or change. He does not always succeed.

Brüno has plenty of laughs, but most of them fall on light pop-culture references and topical humor. Some of the best jokes make reference to Sex and the City, or convince you again to agree that Hollywood-wannabe parents are retards. Not really groundbreaking stuff here.

In a nutshell, Brüno is a three part soup. Take 2 oz Borat, mix in a shot of shock and aww, and top with one large, used double-sided electronic dildo with handle bars and handcuffs. Now, pour the contents over your face and sit in it for 81 minutes.

The Shock-u-mentary style that Cohen has created may not last forever. The “film” barely counts as a motion picture. And now, he's made films from all three of his original Da Ali G Show characters. Though I would love another attempt. Maybe the next time he could try a film with a script so he wouldn’t have to ad lib with his dick.

To compare this to an M. Night Shyamalan film, it’s not as bad as The Village but not as good as The Sixth Sense. Here’s hoping Cohen’s next film is a little more Signs and a little less Lady in the Water.

The Boondock Saints

Nov 1999, Troy Duffy, 110 minutes

For those of you who have not seen The Boondock Saints, you are missing one of the rarest occurrences in life. Much the way the Titan Arum (a.k.a. the Corpse Flower) opens but once every decade, a straight to DVD classic like The Boondock Saints is as equally hard to witness. The film, by all normal theatrical traits, should have at least gotten a small release in cinemas back in 1999. If I had to make a list of worse movies to come out in the past decade that received theatrical runs, the list would wrap around the earth 2.5 times. The list would include 5 Saw movies, most of the resumé from Uwe Boll, and just about anything Tom Green has ever breathed on.

The Boondock Saints is sort of your anti-superhero superhero movie without superheroes, get it? They kill bad guys when the legal system can’t get to them. Sounds like a bad DeNiro / Pacino movie. However, the then young cast of Sean Patrick Flannery (best known as Young Indiana Jones) and Norman Reedus (best known for... well I guess this movie) battle Boston’s least-finest with a flair for religion and humor. The leads stumble into the act of being heroes. They didn’t want this position but now find themselves morally bound to clean up the streets. Director Troy Duffy avoids much of the cliché you would see in a heavy breathing crime drama by keeping much of the action and dialogue light and fast.

Stealing the show is Willem Dafoe, who gives a career changing performance as FBI Agent Paul Smecker. Smecker, a comfortable homosexual who seems just as comfortable berating other homosexuals, is one of the wildest characters ever thrown on screen. From his cross-dressing to his river dancing, he blurs the line of genius and insanity. Dafoe has never been more entertaining.

The film is full of religious overtones and a scene of the leads awakening to the righteous lives they should live, however it never gets overbearing. The religion in this film is cool; I can’t believe I’m saying that – but it is. The little prayers they say after whacking a group of guys… it’s cool. The church should spend more time sponsoring screenings of The Boondock Saints and less time trying to promote Passion of the Christ.

Finally, find this under-respected little picture before it becomes out of style. With a sequel in the works, soon enough it’s going to be unhip to be down with the Saints.